The Big Picture
While the Metro Vancouver market ended 2023 in balanced market territory, conditions in January began shifting back in favour of sellers as the pace of newly listed properties did not keep up with the jump in home sales.
“It’s hard to believe that January sales figures came in so strong after such a quiet December, which saw many buyers and sellers delaying major decisions,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “If sellers don’t step off the sidelines soon, the competition among buyers could tilt the market back into sellers’ territory as the available inventory struggles to keep pace with demand.”
“Our 2024 forecast is calling for a two to three per cent increase in prices by the end of the year, which is largely the result of demand, once again, butting up against too little inventory,” Lis said. “If the January figures are indicative of what the spring market has in store, our forecast may already be off to an overly conservative start. Markets can shift quickly, however, and we’ll watch the February numbers to see if these early signs of strength continue, or whether they’re a blip in the data.”
- Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
The Little Picture
Statistics for sub-markets, price bands, and product type can vary significantly. Some sub-bmarkets are seeing a significant increase inactivity so for in the first week of February, while others are continuing to move at a slower pace. For this reason it’s always advisable to get in touch with your Real Estate Advisor to dive into how the market is performing in your area. This is something I love discussing! Reach out to me if you’d like insight on your neighbourhood or the area you’re considering a purchase in ~ 604-315-1840
With listing activity remaining below historical norms, home sales in Metro Vancouver1 have mounted a surprising comeback, rising near levels seen last spring, before eight consecutive interest rate hikes eroded borrowing power and brought home sales activity down along with it.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,741 in April 2023, a 16.5 per cent decrease from the 3,281 sales recorded in April 2022, and 15.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,249).
“The fact we are seeing prices rising and sales rebounding this spring tells us home buyers are returning with confidence after a challenging year for our market, with mortgage rates roughly doubling,” Lis said. “The latest MLS HPI® data show home prices have increased about five per cent year-to-date, which already outpaces our forecast of one to two per cent by year-end. The year is far from over, however, and it remains to be seen if these price increases will be sustained into 2024.”
There were 4,307 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2023. This represents a 29.7 per cent decrease compared to the 6,128 homes listed in April 2022, and was 22 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,525).
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,790, a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to April 2022 (9,176), and 20.9 per cent below the 10- year seasonal average (11,117).
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2023 is 32.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 24.4 per cent for detached homes, 40.1 per cent for townhomes, and 37.4 per cent for apartments.
Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
“When we released our market forecast in January, we were one of the only organizations taking the contrarian view that prices were likely to appreciate in 2023,” Lis said. “And what we’re seeing unfold so far this year is consistent with our prediction that near record-low inventory levels would create competitive conditions where almost any resurgence in demand would translate to price escalation, despite the elevated borrowing cost environment. At the crux of it, the issue remains a matter of far too little resale supply available relative to the pool of active buyers in our market.”
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,170,700. This represents a 7.4 per cent decrease over April 2022 and a 2.4 per cent increase compared to March 2023.
Metro Vancouver - Arpril 2023Greater Vancouver - April 2023Fraser Valley - April 2023
Sales of detached homes in April 2023 reached 808, a 16.3 per cent decrease from the 965 detached sales recorded in April 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,915,800. This represents an 8.8 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to March 2023.
Sales of apartment homes reached 1,413 in April 2023, a 16.5 per cent decrease compared to the 1,693 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $752,300. This represents a 3.1 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a two per cent increase compared to March 2023.
Attached home sales in April 2023 totalled 500, a 13.5 per cent decrease compared to the 578 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,078,400. This represents a 6.1 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a 2.1 per cent increase compared to March 2023.
- From the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
If you would like to discuss specific stats for the sub-market you live in, please give me a call as I love talking about it!
Felix 604-315-1840
In March, home prices in Metro Vancouver's housing market experienced slight increases, while the number of new listings remained lower than historical averages. Despite elevated borrowing costs, home sales are performing better than expected this spring. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 2,535 residential home sales in March 2023, a 42.5% decrease from March 2022 and 28.4% below the 10-year seasonal average. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is presently $1,143,900, which is a 9.5% decrease from March 2022 and a 1.8% increase compared to February 2023.
According to Andrew Lis, REBGV's Director of Economics and Data Analytics, the spring market is expected to exceed the previously forecasted modest price increase of one to two percent across all property types. This surprising increase in prices is occurring in spite of below-average sales, new listings, and elevated borrowing costs, indicating that sellers are holding out for more favorable market conditions.
In March 2023, 4,317 detached, attached, and apartment properties were newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver, which is a 35.5% decrease compared to March 2022 and 22.3% below the 10-year seasonal average. The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,617, which is an 8.1% increase from March 2022 and 17.3% below the 10-year seasonal average.
The sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2023 across all property types is 30.7%, with ratios of 23.3% for detached homes, 36.7% for townhomes, and 34.9% for apartments. When the ratio dips below 12%, historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices, while ratios surpassing 20% for several months often result in upward pressure on prices.
Lis explained that if home sellers remain inactive, MLS® sales figures will continue to appear lower than historical averages as we move toward summer. The number of sales in a given month is partially influenced by the number of homes that come to market that month and the inventory of unsold homes listed in previous months. With fewer homes coming onto the market, sales will remain lower than expected at this point in the year.
In March 2023, sales of detached homes totaled 734, representing a 43.6% decrease from March 2022, while sales of apartment homes were 1,311, a 43.2% decrease compared to March 2022. Attached home sales totaled 466, a 37.3% decrease from March 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties was $1,861,800, for apartment properties was $737,400, and for attached units was $1,056,400. These prices represent decreases from March 2022 but increases from February 2023.
Data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. If you would like a more detailed market update for the area you live in, please feel free to give me a call at 604-315-1840 or [email protected]